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The Global Economy in June

The major highlights of the month of June were the events that unfolded around the isolation of Qatar by its Gulf neighbors, developments in the oil market and signs that major central banks were beginning to end monetary easing. Despite these developments, global markets continued the upward trend even as analysts continued to raise questions about its sustainability.

The US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, as expected, on June 14th for the second time this year and signaled that it will start to unwind its massive balance sheet. However, doubts have been raised whether the Fed will go for a third rate hike this year amidst US economic data falling below expectations in the second quarter. Taking cues from the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England have also signaled that they will begin to end the era of easy money. Emerging Market investors are watching this development closely to see how it affects risk appetite.

Emerging markets continued to see positive investor sentiment, as reflected by a seventh consecutive month of foreign portfolio inflows, up to June. According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), June saw US$17.8 billion in inflows to EM debt and equities, the majority of which went to the Asian region. Volatility in commodity prices, especially oil, did not appear to trouble EM equities. Analysts have pointed to increasing weight of technology shares relative to commodities-based shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index as making this possible. However, some have pointed to robust demand for debt from Russia, Argentina and Ivory Coast as evidence of an investment bubble in high yielding EM assets.

China’s A-shares were finally able to gain entry to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, from next year. China also opened up its US$9 trillion debt market to foreign fund managers through its new ‘Bond Connect’ service through Hong Kong. Meanwhile, India finally put into force its new Goods and Services Tax (GST) on the 30th of June, promising to simplify the country’s tax regime.

In Europe, Brexit negotiations got underway, while Prime Minister May managed to come to an official agreement with the coalition partner from Northern Ireland. The coalition gives her government a slim majority in parliament. Despite some stability in the parliament, the British economy showed signs of trouble as consumer spending dipped considerably for the first time since Brexit. The Sterling pound also continued to remain weak.

Brent oil prices were rather volatile in June, seeing a drop to the mid-US$40s on fears of a rising supply glut amidst increased OPEC output in May. Despite an OPEC agreement to limit production, the countries excused from it – mainly Nigeria and Libya – have continued to increase output. However, as of the first week of July, prices saw seven consecutive days of gains, rising to near US$50 due to a slowdown in the growth of the US shale oil sector, reduction in US crude oil reserves.  But analysts do not see any support from fundamentals for a sustained rise, reflected in the sharp drop seen on July 5th to US$47.79 a barrel.

The situation over Qatar’s isolation by its Arab neighbors did not have a major impact on oil prices. While the risks of the escalation seem to have reduced, analysts say the crisis is likely to be protracted in its current form. The Saudi-led coalition sent a list of 13-demands, which included ending relations with Iran and shutting down Al Jazeera. Despite Qatar’s rejection of these demands, the Saudi-led coalition have not yet taken any retaliatory measures, raising hopes of the tensions gradually easing out.

Source: Frontier Blog

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