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The Global Economy in March

Global markets in March were characterized by the impact of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, the stalling of the ‘Trump trade’ as healthcare reforms failed in the US Congress and the continuing inflows to Emerging Markets. While the rate hike by the Fed was much anticipated by the markets, it turned out to be less hawkish than expected. Despite the positive US economic data, the Fed retained its outlook at two more rate hikes for 2017.

Emerging Markets ended the first quarter on a high note with sovereign bond sales rising to a record $69.6bn, according to Dealogic, a global research firm. The net value of emerging market fixed income debt held by investment funds also rose to a record of about $350bn at the end of March, according to research group EPFR. The MSCI Emerging Market stock index is up 11.4% the first three months of the year, its strongest quarter since the start of 2012. A weaker dollar also helped emerging market currencies to record their second best quarter since 2012. The data illustrates how investor sentiment has stabilised since the early weeks of President Trump’s tenure in the White House, when his protectionist policies sparked an emerging market sell-off.

The policy promises of President Trump have involved tax cuts and an economic stimulus package that drove the ‘Trump-trade’ –  the post-election rally in US equities. However, the last month saw that rally slowing down over doubts of the administration’s ability to find support in the legislature to push through such policies. The doubts were heightened by the failure in Congress of the healthcare bill, meant to replace ‘Obamacare’.

The post-election US equity rally driven by the new administration’s promises on tax cuts and economic stimulus slowed down in March. The slowdown came as the failure in passing the new healthcare bill in the Congress cast doubt over the administration’s ability in delivering on these promised stimulus.

Elections proved to be positive for markets in March, with the ruling party managing to hold off populist competition for first place at the Dutch elections and Modi’s BJP managing to win overwhelmingly at the Uttar Pradesh state elections. Markets were relieved by not having to deal with another populist win in the West, while celebrating the confirmation of PM Modi’s political capital for economic reforms by accelerating inflows to Indian stocks and bonds. However, last year’s Brexit vote returned to headlines as the British PM officially triggered the two-year process of leaving the EU on the 29th of March, as promised.

Oil prices reversed some of the gains made since the last quarter of 2016, even bringing to question whether it has sufficient support to stay inside the $50 mark. The fall in prices was mainly driven by an increase in US oil production, which offset the effects of the OPEC’s production limitations. The downward pressure on prices has prompted the OPEC to consider extending the limitations beyond June. This helped prices settle within a $50 to $53 range by month end.

Source: Frontier Blog

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