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The Global Economy in May

The month of May was characterized by political risks affecting markets. Scandals over Russian involvement in the Presidential election and the removal of the FBI director affected the Trump administration, with some politicians even invoking calls for impeachment of President Trump. However, major US equity benchmarks continued their upward movement with only minor impact from the political scandals. Some argue that this is because the ‘Trump Trade’ has been replaced by a liquidity trade fueled by rising inequality and higher profits for firms.

Amidst its usual political uncertainty, emerging markets continued their positive run so far this year, raking in over $20 billion in non-resident portfolio inflows for a third consecutive month in May according data from the Institute for International Finance (IIF). Data from IIF and Dealogic point to over $100 billion in such inflows so far in 2017, driven by nearly $100 billion in sovereign debt issuance by EM countries in the period. EMs were, however, affected by Moody’s downgrading of China’s sovereign credit rating and the fresh political scandals affecting Brazil’s President Temer. Analysts have begun to throw into doubt the sustainability of the EM’s bullish run, citing high valuations of equities and the upcoming US interest rate hikes. In the meantime, Frontier Markets seem to have gained investor interest in the first few months of the year, with increased fund inflows, fueled by political uncertainties elsewhere.

In Europe, markets did celebrate the victory of Emmanuel Macron over the populist Marine Le pen, but now the question remains how he will use a probable parliamentary majority to push through his ambitious reform promises. It is a question well highlighted by the delays facing President Trump’s reform agenda, despite having a republican majority. However, Europe continued to face a number of uncertainties, including the continuation of the European Central Bank’s debt buying program, overcoming Italy’s banking sector problems and finding a suitable compromise with the Greek government on its debt repayments.

But after the June 8th general elections, the future of the Brexit negotiations in the context of a hung parliament in Britain is going to be a major uncertainty. The Conservative Party’s coalition partner, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from Northern Ireland, is likely to push for a ‘softer’ Brexit. The situation is also likely to make the Sterling Pound volatile, after losing  its gains over the last two months on election night.

Oil prices reduced from its mid-$50s height to below $50 during the month due to doubt over the OPEC’s production limitation agreement. Prices did rise as the agreement’s extension to March 2018 came to being, but the market was not impressed by it. Analysts were concerned that oil markets are headed for a supply glut despite the OPEC agreement. Prices have dipped below the $50 mark by early June, helped by the isolation of Qatar by Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, which could unravel the OPEC agreement.

Source: Frontier Blog

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