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The Global Economy in September

September marked a resurgence in the US Dollar, as reflected in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, after a prolonged weakening during the year so far. This resurgence was helped by the increasing likelihood of a December rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, positive US economic data and renewed optimism on tax cuts to be introduced by the Trump administration.

In addition, the dollar was helped by sudden weakness in a number of major currencies. The Euro weakened following the controversy around the independence referendum in Spain’s Catalonian region. The British pound was affected by renewed political uncertainty in UK over Brexit. The Yen weakened as Japan’s PM announced snap parliamentary elections.

Meanwhile, President Trump is to announce his nomination for the next Federal Reserve Chairperson in October. Analysts and betting markets have speculated on who it could be with Gary Cohn and Kevin Warsh among the names being discussed. Markets are concerned about the possibility of someone as hawkish on interest rates as Kevin Warsh having a fair chance of being nominated.

With both the US Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) talking about reducing their quantitative easing measures amidst the US Dollar strengthening; emerging markets could see some of their gains chipped away. In fact, some report of caution by investors in emerging markets (EMs), with overall inflows slowing down. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) reported that September saw $14.5bn in overall inflows to EM stocks and bonds, the least since January. But many analysts expect to see the emerging market rally continuing.

Brent crude oil prices increased in the month reaching a two year high of $59.02 a barrel on the 25th. This was caused by increased optimism over the OPEC-led oil producers extending their production limitations beyond March 2018 and optimistic demand outlooks by the International Energy Agency and OPEC. Aiding bullish sentiment was the possible shut down of the Kurdish oil pipeline via Turkey amidst controversy over its independence referendum. However, prices have moderated to the mid-$50s since then, with Kurdish supply continuing and the possibility of increased US shale oil supply amidst higher market prices. In fact, US oil exports have increased as the spread between Brent and US crude futures expanded.

Source: Frontier Blog

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